Where is all the panic? Massive tariffs loom before us in buying tea direct from China. You'd think puerh heads in the US might take out a 3rd mortgage to buy up whatever last of the Lao Ban Zhang or the 2020 anything they can get their hands on, in shipping multiples of $800 orders or less to avoid the previous set of tariffs upon which the new 125% will apply. One expects the Yeeon aficionados to order extra boxes of basement dirt from Hong Kong to flavor their own stashes extra dank, all before slow-boat shipping is officially halted and before the private courier just isn't worth the expense, never mind the bother. Even though the latest memes give every indication of the dire need for the slimming effects of shou in the west.
I don't hear any complaining. Not seriously.
Well, students always complain their tight budgets prohibit full indulgence of their puerh habit, but more on that in a minute while Old Cwyn sorts out this mess.
On the top end of tea, no one really cares. In fact, at the top end, tea buyers can think of the savings on tariffs as a beautiful justification to fly to Guangzhou and buy in person, or a lesser excuse like my ex getting a nice hotel in Huizhou while stalking an old girlfriend. Once in China, just courier everything back. Dirty tea tourism.
The top tier buyer probably doesn't sweat an extra $200 or $2000 tea premium and they got courier all along and first name basis with their tea pimps. If they don't like the tea, it's expensive compost. Although I am certain whole offices are dedicated to crunching numbers to see how much the buyer can tolerate on price increases or whether the blends will be sprinkled with a bit more Myanmar leaf than before which is probably cheaper although one hopes not. Or whether the warehouse in Canada is now a bad idea with double tariffs to consider. In any case, the actual buyer at the end of this chain worries about precisely none of this because they have multiple tea sources and multiple couriers ready to deliver. It's a business matter on the factory end to figure out how to sell to rich buyers.
Same deal for the mid tier junk tea buyers on Taobao. By now the lesser endowed but still fluid guys have at least 3 agents who no doubt quickly pivot to cover any customer situation with private courier, and to mark Gift and Happy Birthday Uncle all over the box. Is it really a problem?
I feel pretty sure Uncle John Kingteamall and Uncle Scott at Yunnan Sourcing will sort things out in western retail for our middle wallet tea basketeers. These guys are one fewer middleman cheaper than your other favorite curators.
Buuttt, then again, don't most middle tea basketeers already have all the tea they really want? I don't see the panic here, instead I see these people trying to sell. Some perhaps overbought in the early throes of puerh enthusiasm. Others are holding tongs that well, they no longer like so much. Their palates changed, maybe. Did they get bored of the hobby? Annoyed with the storage issues...I have heard that often enough. Or do they view the incoming tariffs as a boon to make a "huge" profit selling tea at a good margin, but still far less than new + tariff? That is not completely outlandish. Remember when a certain online company (let's nickname as "Foggy Mountaintop") offered to buy back their tea when the price at the tea farm went up? Can't complain about a real opportunity for resale and trade. We still have threads on Steepster!
Now we arrive at the budget buyer whose dusty little tuos just got more pricey, and aspirational tea even further out of reach. We are a little bit screwed, at least in retail, and words like fu brick are not comforting. But in the after market, with middle buyers starting to sell off tea, we might find tea otherwise long sold-out. Or sample bags destined for the bin given a new life in tea trading. Eh, budget buyers might be surprised that the best market is more local, with stateside vendors selling stock on hand. At the very least, we can comfort ourselves that coffee drinkers have it far worse. At least tea is not scarce.
If wallets really do pinch out, what will happen to all that tea, especially if folks in Asia tighten their wallets too? I sorta see companies storing for 4 years, if they have to, to stave off any major price drops. Make premium product even more at a premium just to find. What was it Herodotus said, the money never stays in one place for very long. The taps will again flow.
But now is a time of dribbles and drips. If a US Dad is sitting on a nice tea collection, this 4/20 day he may enjoy what he has, justified and ancient with fat knowledge of riches acquired long ago, in the "before times." Knowing that at least 50% of his neighbors don't give a shit. One less thing to worry about.
