The
online tea world just gets nastier every year. I look back to a couple of years
ago and the conflicts in the puerh world seem warm and fuzzy by comparison to
what is going on lately. We are well past the point now of joking over 1800
year old tea and all the great things puerh will do for your diabetes. What is
new is a consumer backlash, in my opinion. This backlash has a number of
elements, some of which have more to do with the consumer than with tea or tea
vendors. The biggest factors in play right now are: 1) shift in marketing
preferences by consumers; 2) increase in puerh tea prices, coupled with 3) continuing
stagnant purchasing power of consumers.
Marketing
Shift
For
the past decade or more, tea marketing has focused on health/wellness side of
tea drinking in hopes of converting coffee drinkers and selling a lifestyle
image. Largely this wellness marketing focus has aimed for and appealed to
financially well-off persons over the age of forty. These people are primarily
responsible for the success of gyms, spas, and high tech devices. Aging always drives
spending money in staying healthy and youthful, and lines the pockets of
wellness gurus worldwide. Now we have a younger buying cohort who is not yet
preoccupied with aging, and has less purchasing power per person and prefers
lower tech living. Consequently we see gyms on the decline, and high priced tea
brewing devices fail.
Along
with this, the wellness marketing trope feels tired. It smacks of privilege not
felt, along the lines of wishful thinking rather than reality. The consumer is
aware that tea with a Zen lifestyle is not provided by hard working, benevolent
vendors. These are experiences consumers create for themselves. Tea is an
ingredient of experience in the daily actions of the buyer, but not the entire
experience bought in one huge package.
With
a more “ingredient,” nuts and bolts focus, people are impatient when they feel
someone is trying to sell them an image or lifestyle when really the purchase
is tea. I consistently read consumer complaints over marketing which includes “image”
based tea labels, with no real information on the actual tea. This scheme is
all the more obvious when accompanied with tea photos taken from a wholesaler
stock catalog and the consumer recognizes the repeated usage from one vendor to
another.
The
term I see more and more on tea forums is “marketing schtick.” Consumer
backlash is increasing against teas sold via images or lifestyles, rather than
a description of what the product is, “objectively,” origins and so forth. Consumer discussions continue for months along these lines, for example the Mei
Leaf 1000 year tea discussion on Steepster. Consumers also see through the
schtick of vendors who “name drop” on labels, naming conventions like “Little
Bingdao” on teas that are about as close to Bingdao as Milwaukee is to Chicago.
Online
discussions stemming from a "disconnect" between vendors and consumers now get really ugly. An example of the worst might be one about a monthly tea subscription
company selling lifestyle when the teas do not measure up to expectation, and
consumers taking to social media to complain, resulting in threats by the
vendor to sue. Even bloggers are starting to hear threats of lawsuits for
negative reviews of teas, an unlikely scenario but certainly not pleasant tea
meditation. Another ugly discussion continued for days over the alt online
names of a tea vendor presumably anonymously self-promoting teas and bashing the competition.
All
the disillusioned discussions online point to a decline or shift in social marketing of
tea, with too many tea companies using social media in the exact same way. Too
many tea companies focusing on image, lifestyle or boasting a guru lead inevitably to consumer weariness, whether via
photos, blogs or podcasts. Tea marketing is in a sort of reductionist phase, the thing rather than the image of the thing. But we have a few more factors at play in 2018, the picture
is not quite so simplistic.
Increase
in (Puerh) Tea Prices
Tea
is more expensive in large part because more people are demanding a premium
product, and the amount of premium tea available cannot possibly meet the
demand. In addition, weather plays a role in how much premium tea is available
in a given year, and the past few years were affected by unusual climate
events. Governmental policies such as in Taiwan have made high mountain oolong
more scarce as well.
In
the past four years the cost of a nice puerh tea has literally doubled, and that
is not including the increases in puerh tea costs before or even after the big
bubble of 2008. Ghastly price increases are coming at a bad time too, because on the
one hand long-time collectors have plenty of tea and are not likely to open the
wallet except for increasingly rare tea experiences, and people new to
collecting are priced out before they even start. Over the past year, one of my
blog posts has consistently remained in my top six “most read” posts, the post called
“How Can I Afford this Hobby?” I suspect
that the people finding this post are new to puerh. They are dealing with sticker shock and want recommendations. The same can be said about oolong
and many other premium teas as well. Buying premium tea is increasingly out of
reach for most of us, myself included. We can still find decent budget teas, as
I wrote about in that post, but decent is not the same as premium.
Continued
Stagnant Purchasing Power
Premium
tea was once an affordable treat, but while teas are increasing in price and
scarcity, the consumer is ever more aware of how little their money buys.
Crypto currency is a huge topic right now, in part because people are
frustrated with how little cash they have and how little their cash can buy. I think
this is the real anger in the ugliness of the tea scene. How dare vendors pitch
“schtick,” lie about tea, sell lifestyle tropes, mark up prices more than 10% a
year, use social marketing to find customers when the reality on the ground of
the consumer is so damned painful?
Along
with this pain is the realization that change is not going to happen anytime
soon. The whole notion of “change” is political, and politics are more stagnant
than a wet pile of shou. Consumer anger peaked over the past year or so and now people
are onto what they hope are solutions, whether it is crypto currency or
changing buying habits. I propose a few concepts that will be key in this year’s
puerh buying.
Budget
Budget
teas rumored to have good quality will sell out quick. Yes, they always sell
out quick but we have more buyers now than four years ago. More people are
seriously looking for decent budget teas. The high end collector side is likely
to remain stable with a few people able to afford the best of the best. I
believe the successful vendor to the western market will either focus on the
budget end or scale back significantly and cater to a small group of high end
collectors. The middle tiers will be slower to sell, especially and unless “better”
drinkers are vastly different year after year, which for the most part they are
not, so the middle may be the most stable price-wise, and perhaps the toughest sell.
Chinese
Factory Teas
Western
ignorance of the Chinese language and myths about Chinese politics favor
factory teas more this year, with budget so much of a factor. People cannot
read the wrappers, so they are essentially “empty” of marketing imagery for the
western buyer. Even if the wrappers are all about the tired health and wellness
tropes, people cannot read them. Even if the wrappers lie, anyone who cannot
read Chinese will not know.
More
importantly, Chinese puerh wrappers have the nostalgia factor politically. They
project the old-time state owned factories with emotionless number recipes. The
bland sameness of the old CNNP label suggests a society with no elites, when
premium tea and bad tea shared the same wrapping. Now of course the old reality
had elites, despite the “worker” philosophy. But for a customer with stagnant
purchasing power, abandoned by the state, left to the mercy of corporations,
essentially the customer in “capitalist” countries, a factory wrapper suggests
a political change that needs to happen even if it does not. Chinese wrappers
simply do not push the sore buttons, and one can find a lot of budget-friendly
factory teas for under $50, full-size cakes too, not these bottle-cap sizes
that we see more and more of.
More
Auctions and Group Buys
The
middleman is not responsible for the mess, and may carry an advantage of
coordinating budget-friendly group tea buying. Personally I see this as an
expensive way to buy tea in the long run, but in the short term might be the
only option for folks who hope their current budget will change for the better
in a few years.
Along
with this, more and more people buying tea means more tuition tea, not merely
bad tea. People need time to learn what they like in tea, and so the secondary
market is not yet kicked in as much as it will be in a few years. More people
will decide to sell teas they do not like in order to buy other teas. Right now
this has not yet really started in the west, but it will and maybe 2018 is the
year it really starts to increase. I bought some very good tea last year this
way, and sold a few I knew I would never drink.
More
Interest in Storage
Tea
storage is rather low tech, as inexpensive as you like. I believe this is the
real meat of the puerh hobby, and obsessing over storage rather than shopping
is the healthy direction our hobby needs to go. I see more and more discussions
of storage than ever before, and the ideas are grand. I applaud the failures
too, because we learn more from failure in the short term than anything else.
Long term storage is still anyone’s potential success story. I see far more
marketing potential in storage than in lifestyle or wellness. Unfortunately I
think the tea vendor world will continue marching along with the tired
lifestyle stuff rather than stock up on storage solutions and custom thermoses.
Overall,
I think 2018 is the year of the Testy Customer and I will be interested to see
what emerges from this on the vendor end. Of course these are merely my own
observations and predictions. Anything can happen and probably will.